“Part of that is we can observe storms so much better than we did in the past. Rapid intensification is happening more quickly and packing a bigger punch, says Klotzbach. Ocean water in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico is consistently warm and often where hurricanes intensify.īut, McNoldy says, “Even when all the ingredients are present, some storms don’t rapidly intensify.” He adds that more well-organized storms tend to suddenly gain strength, while the “big, messy storms” are more likely to fall apart.Īs with a hurricane’s speed and potential for rainfall, climate change may also be favoring rapid intensification. Winds push water toward the center of a storm, low pressure over the eye sucks it up, and remaining air flows out over the top. Hurricanes move like engines over water, in what McNoldy describes as an “in, up, and out” circulation. Its winds went from 75 mph to 185 mph in a single day.įor a hurricane to intensify, there are generally three factors forecasters look for: ocean temperature, humidity, and wind shear-the altitude-shifting winds that disrupt the symmetrical shape hurricanes need to survive and grow.įorecasters thought Hurricane Marco, which spun up in late August, might intensify, but it was ultimately torn apart by wind shear. Hurricane Wilma, which hit Florida in 2005, is the most extreme example of intensification. “Typically, most hurricanes undergo rapid intensification at some point in their lifetime,” notes Klotzbach. Why do some storms gain strength so quickly? More evidence is needed to prove this is the case, says Klotzbach. Wind is generally created by temperature differences in a given location, and jet streams may be slowing down as poles warm. The exact reason storms are moving more slowly is still an area of scientific debate, but the prevailing theory is that, as the poles warm, the temperature difference between the poles and the tropics decreases and weakens the jet stream. Just look at heavy rainfalls generally,” says Klotzbach of increased precipitation in some regions. “When it comes to climate change, the more straightforward relationship is that a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor. Warm air is able to hold more water vapor, and historic rainfall like Hurricane Harvey produced in Houston, Texas, has been linked to climate change. Warmer temperatures also make hurricanes rainier. One paper published in 2018 showed that hurricanes around the world were already moving about 10 percent slower on average than they did before 1950. “The only difference is where are in the atmosphere.”Įmerging research is showing that the climate crisis will make storms move more slowly and higher temperatures will allow them to carry more water. “Paulette being steered by very strong winds,” says McNoldy. Were Hurricane Sally driven by stronger steering winds, it would be moving more quickly, he says, and rainfall would not be as much of a concern.įor comparison, Hurricane Paulette also recently intensified into a Category 2 storm in the northern Atlantic Ocean and was moving at 35 mph before it dissipated. Whether it’s caught in a draft pushing it 5 mph or 20 mph really “comes down to luck,” he says. How much rain a hurricane might dump in a given area depends on how quickly it moves, says McNoldy. “Hurricanes effectively move like pebbles in a stream,” says Colorado State University atmospheric scientist Philip Klotzbach “So, if you can forecast the stream you can know where the pebble is going to go.” Depending on the winds near a hurricane, it could get trapped in a weak current or a strong one. A steering current could be driven by anything from systems of high or low pressure in the atmosphere to fast moving currents of air called jet streams. In different parts of the atmosphere, explains University of Miami meteorologist Brian McNoldy, there are steering currents of wind that determine where storms go and how quickly they get there. These storms developed completely differently, but why? Why do some hurricanes barrel into the coast with devastating speed, while others park over an area and cause major flooding? And could climate change be influencing them? What makes some hurricanes so slow and rainy?
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